Reuniting Cyprus
(Filed: 17/12/2003)

The veteran leader of Northern Cyprus, Rauf Denktash, will be mightily relieved at the outcome of this week's parliamentary elections. The large demonstrations earlier this year in favour of reuniting with the southern part of the island, so that both could join the European Union next May, suggested that his power to block a deal was waning.

Sunday's poll, seen as a referendum on his rejection of the United Nations plan for reunification, resulted in a tie between his supporters and opponents. Mr Denktash interprets the result as favouring unity and EU membership, but not at any price. The deadlock in the assembly could mean that fresh elections will have to be held in February, which will scupper the chances of the whole island joining the EU in May. Meanwhile, the self-styled President of the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus, an entity recognised by Ankara alone, remains its chief negotiator.

The EU and America, the first concerned about the legal difficulties in admitting only one part of Cyprus, the second about the tension that a divided island causes between Nato members Greece and Turkey, will lean on Ankara to make Mr Denktash give ground.

The prime minister, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, has already expressed his impatience with the Turkish Cypriot leader. But Mr Denktash continues to enjoy strong support from the military. Last month, the chairman of the joint chiefs of staff, General Hilmi Ozkok, said that Turkey would always need a foothold on Cyprus to counter any threat from Greece. Stalemate in Ankara will allow Mr Denktash to play for time, something at which he is a past master.

Yet the tide is not flowing in his direction. The demonstrations in favour of the UN plan, the popularity of opening the Green Line that separates the two communities for day trips and the higher number of votes polled by Mr Denktash's opponents on Sunday: all indicate that many Turkish Cypriots are tired of economic backwardness and diplomatic isolation. And in Turkey itself, the military knows that the majority of the population favours EU membership and that that in turn hangs on a satisfactory solution to the Cyprus problem.

The key date is next December, when the summit marking the end of the Dutch presidency is due to decide whether to open accession talks with Turkey. Mr Denktash may have gained a breathing space, but it could be short-lived.